A Turning Point in India-Taliban Relations

Context : A high-level meeting between Afghan Taliban leadership and senior Indian officials took place in Dubai, with Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri and Taliban Acting Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi in attendance. This meeting aimed to enhance cooperation between India and Afghanistan, as bilateral relations have remained largely dormant since the Taliban’s 2021 takeover of Afghanistan. Despite this, India has continued limited aid to Afghanistan, and the meeting sought to explore avenues for further engagement.

Background of India-Taliban Engagement

India’s Stance on Taliban Governance

India, along with other global powers, has refrained from officially recognizing the Taliban regime due to:

• Its lack of inclusivity.
• The mistreatment of women and girls under Taliban rule.

However, India has focused on engaging with the Afghan people, aiming to address humanitarian and developmental needs in Afghanistan, even if it doesn't endorse the Taliban's governance.

Evolution of India-Taliban Engagement

• Initial Contact (2021): Shortly after the Taliban seized power, Indian Ambassador Deepak Mittal held discussions with Taliban leaders in Doha.
• Subsequent Meetings: In 2022, Joint Secretary J P Singh and other Indian officials had low-profile engagements with the Taliban.
• Increased Engagement: India deployed a technical team at its Kabul embassy to ensure the continuity of its humanitarian projects and initiatives.

The Current Meeting

The meeting took place amidst rising tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan over the activities of the Pakistan-based Taliban and retaliatory airstrikes. Dubai, chosen as a neutral location, hosted the talks, facilitated by the UAE, which maintains strong ties with both India and the Taliban.

India’s First High-Level Engagement with the Taliban

This marks the first high-level meeting between Indian officials and the Taliban, signaling a shift from previous engagements that involved only Joint Secretary-level discussions.

Key Discussion Areas

1. Security Concerns

• India emphasized the importance of preventing anti-India terror groups from operating within Afghanistan.
• India raised concerns regarding Pakistan-based terror groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM).
• The Afghan side acknowledged India’s concerns and expressed sensitivity to India’s security interests.

2. Development and Humanitarian Aid

• India pledged to evaluate and enhance its development projects in Afghanistan.
• India has already delivered significant humanitarian aid, including:
  • 50,000 MT of wheat
  • 300 tons of medicines
  • 27 tons of earthquake relief
  • 40,000 liters of pesticides
  • Millions of vaccine doses and hygiene kits
  • Winter clothing and stationery kits
• Additionally, both sides agreed to expand humanitarian aid and support healthcare and refugee rehabilitation.

3. Chabahar Port for Trade and Aid

• Both sides agreed to use Iran’s Chabahar port for trade and humanitarian aid to Afghanistan.
• India’s use of the port has been exempted from US sanctions, further promoting its strategic role.

4. Strengthening Sports Ties

• Cooperation in cricket was discussed, with India offering training and facilities in Noida for Afghan players.

Humanitarian Assistance Delivered So Far

India has already sent:

• 50,000 MT of wheat
• 300 tons of medicines
• 27 tons of earthquake relief
• 40,000 liters of pesticides
• Millions of vaccine doses and hygiene kits
• Winter clothing and stationery kits

Future Engagement and Collaboration

The two sides agreed to:

• Maintain regular contact at various levels to facilitate ongoing cooperation.
• Keep the door open for future political-level discussions.

Notable Omissions

The Indian Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) did not address sensitive issues such as:

• Women’s rights
• Minority inclusion
• Broader human rights concerns under the Taliban regime during the meeting.

Key Factors Behind India’s Engagement

1. Pakistan-Taliban Strains

• Pakistan and the Taliban, once allies, are now at odds over border issues and retaliatory airstrikes, which has significantly strained their relationship.

2. Iran’s Diminished Role

• Iran, preoccupied with its internal and external conflicts, has reduced its focus on Afghanistan, allowing other powers, such as India, to step in.

3. Russia’s Reorientation

• Amid its war with Ukraine, Russia is shifting its approach and seeing the Taliban as a counter-terrorism ally, seeking cooperation on security issues.

4. China’s Growing Influence

• China has established ties with the Taliban, focusing on development projects and resource exploration under its Belt and Road Initiative.

5. US Policy Uncertainty

• The potential return of Donald Trump to the White House could lead to renewed US engagement with the Taliban, prompting India to act swiftly to protect its interests.

Challenges and Opportunities

Challenges

• The suppression of women’s and minority rights under the Taliban.
• The security threat posed by groups like Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP).

Opportunities

• Potential for increased stability in Afghanistan.
• The Taliban’s willingness to collaborate with India on securing its interests and participating in development projects.

Conclusion

India’s engagement with the Taliban in Dubai reflects a calculated approach to secure its strategic interests while promoting regional stability and addressing humanitarian needs in Afghanistan. This dialogue also positions India as a key player in shaping the future of Afghanistan amidst a rapidly evolving geopolitical environment. Despite not officially recognizing the Taliban regime, India is pursuing a pragmatic strategy to protect its security interests and foster cooperation in critical areas.