India and China: Between Diplomacy and Border Disputes

Context: India-China Diplomatic Engagement in 2025

India’s Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri visited China in January 2025, signaling a potential thaw in relations. Despite diplomatic progress, key issues remain:

• Border tensions at the Line of Actual Control (LAC).
• Economic interdependence, with $136 billion trade in 2023.
• Geopolitical factors, including Donald Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency.
• China’s economic slowdown vs. India’s rapid growth.

Though diplomatic channels are reopening, unresolved border security issues persist.

Diplomatic Developments

Misri met Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and other officials, leading to:

• Revival of Kailash Mansarovar Yatra.
• Increased media and think-tank exchanges.
• Enhanced air connectivity.

However, these do not confirm military disengagement at the LAC.

Geopolitical and Economic Factors

1. U.S.-China Tensions & India’s Role

• Trump’s policies may renew trade conflicts with China.
• China seeks regional stability, including with India, to counter U.S. pressure.

2. China’s Economic Slowdown

• Real estate crisis (Evergrande collapse), falling FDI, and unemployment weaken China.
• India remains a key trading partner, making stability beneficial for China.

3. India’s Growth Strategy

• Manufacturing expansion and FDI inflows position India as a China alternative.
• Reducing border tensions helps attract investment.

Unresolved LAC Issues

Key flashpoints remain unresolved (Depsang, Pangong Lake, Gogra, Hot Springs).

• India wants border stability first; China prefers broader engagement.
• Lack of clarity on troop withdrawals raises concerns about India conceding ground.

Way Forward

• Ensure transparency on LAC status.
• Balance economic engagement with security priorities.
• Avoid diplomatic compromises on territorial integrity.

Conclusion

India’s diplomatic outreach is a positive step, but border security concerns persist. A principled and strategic approach is essential to ensuring a stable, equitable relationship with China.