SIPRI Report 2025: India's Growing Nuclear Capabilities Amid Global Arms Race

Context

The SIPRI Yearbook 2025 (by Stockholm International Peace Research Institute) has revealed that India now possesses more nuclear warheads than Pakistan, though it still lags significantly behind China. The report underscores the danger of a renewed global nuclear arms race, amid the erosion of arms control agreements.

About SIPRI Yearbook 2025

The SIPRI Yearbook is a globally respected annual publication that tracks armaments, disarmament, and international security trends. The 2025 edition highlights an increase in nuclear arsenal modernization, regional instability, and the rising risk of nuclear conflict.

India’s Status in SIPRI Yearbook 2025

• Total Warheads: India possesses 180 stored nuclear warheads as of January 2025.

• Modernization: India is developing canisterised missiles with multiple warhead capability.

• Nuclear Triad: India now maintains a mature nuclear triad—land-based missiles, air-delivered weapons, and nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs).

• Strategic Shift: There's a possible shift towards mating warheads with launchers even during peacetime, moving away from the earlier de-alerted posture.

Pakistan’s Nuclear Capability

• Total Warheads: Estimated at 170 nuclear warheads (as of January 2025).

• Growth Trends: Increasing fissile material production and new delivery systems suggest arsenal expansion in this decade.

• Strategic Focus: Pakistan’s nuclear posture is primarily aimed at deterring India, with a focus on short-range tactical nuclear weapons.

China’s Expanding Nuclear Arsenal

• Total Warheads: Estimated at 600 nuclear warheads, with an annual growth of ~100 warheads since 2023.

• ICBM Silos: Development of around 350 new ICBM silos in remote desert and mountain bases.

• Posture Shift: Indications suggest China may now keep warheads mounted on missiles during peacetime, a significant departure from earlier practices.

Global Nuclear Force Trends

• Total Warheads Worldwide: 12,241 nuclear warheads, of which ~9,614 are in military stockpiles.

• Top Nuclear Powers: Russia (5,459) and USA (5,177) together hold over 90% of global nuclear weapons.

• Operational Alert: Around 2,100 warheads are maintained in a high-alert operational state.

• Global Modernization: All 9 nuclear-armed states, including the UK, France, Israel, and North Korea, are modernizing or expanding their arsenals.

Crisis in Arms Control

• New START Treaty: The last major arms control treaty is set to expire in 2026, with no successor agreement currently in place.

• Unregulated Growth: Absence of global frameworks risks unchecked nuclear expansion and escalation.

Rising Risks of Nuclear Conflict

• Regional Flashpoints: Tensions in early 2025—particularly during India-Pakistan standoff over Operation Sindoor—raised alarms, especially with strikes on nuclear-linked sites.

• Technology Multipliers: Integration of AI, cyberwarfare, quantum systems, and space assets is making deterrence more fragile and less predictable.

• Escalation Risk: Compressed decision-making timelines and disinformation increase chances of miscalculation or accidental launch.

• Misinformation Warfare: Use of propaganda and fake narratives during conflict distorts threat perception and can hasten escalation.

Policy Implications for India

• Balanced Posture: India must pursue modernization without sacrificing strategic restraint.

• Dialogue Revival: There is an urgent need to revive arms control talks and promote regional nuclear risk-reduction measures.

• Strategic Autonomy: Enhancing indigenous technological capabilities is essential to maintain a credible minimum deterrence.

• Global Leadership: As a responsible nuclear power, India should actively engage in disarmament and non-proliferation platforms to shape global norms.

Conclusion

The SIPRI Yearbook 2025 highlights a concerning return to global nuclear build-up amidst weakening governance mechanisms. For India, a path of measured modernization must be coupled with active global advocacy for arms control and multilateral dialogue.

In today’s nuclear landscape, security is no longer defined by quantity alone, but by the interplay of speed, misinformation, and disruptive technologies—making strategic prudence and diplomatic engagement more vital than ever.