India’s Demographic Turning Point: From Growth to Governance

Context: 

India's demographic landscape is undergoing a major transformation. The recently released UNFPA "State of World Population 2025" report highlights a critical shift — India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has declined to 1.9, falling below the replacement level of 2.1. Despite this decline, India remains the most populous country in the world.

This shift marks a new phase in India’s demographic journey, transitioning from high population growth to potential population stabilisation and even decline in the long term.

Current Population Status and Projections

• As of April 2025, India’s population is estimated at 146.39 crore.

• It is projected to peak at around 170 crore in the next four decades before beginning to decline.

• India has now entered the phase of a demographic transition, common in many emerging economies.

Declining Fertility Rate: Key Trends

• India’s TFR has dropped to 1.9, below the replacement level of 2.1.

• This shift has occurred without coercive policies, driven instead by:

  • Improved access to reproductive healthcare.

  • Increased educational awareness.

  • Women’s empowerment and participation in decision-making.

• In 1960, the average Indian woman had six children; this number has sharply fallen over the decades.

Regional Variations in Fertility

According to NFHS-5 (2022):

• Urban fertility: 1.6

• Rural fertility: 2.1

• States with above-average fertility:

  • Bihar – 2.98

  • Meghalaya – 2.9

  • Uttar Pradesh – 2.35

  • Jharkhand – 2.26

  • Manipur – 2.2

These regional variations highlight the need for state-specific interventions rather than a one-size-fits-all approach.

Economic Pressures Influencing Fertility Choices

• 38% of Indian respondents cited financial constraints as a reason for having fewer children.

• 21% mentioned job insecurity or unemployment.

• Globally, 39% of people across 14 countries reported similar concerns.

This reflects a growing mismatch between desired family size and economic realities.

Gap Between Ideal and Actual Fertility

• 41% of Indian women consider two children as the ideal family size.

• However, 7% of respondents below 50 expect to have fewer than the ideal due to economic and social stress.

• There is also influence from:

  • Partners' preferences (19% wanted fewer children).

  • Lack of domestic support (15% cited household burden).

  • Pressure from healthcare workers (14% said they were advised to limit childbirth).

This reveals gaps in reproductive autonomy and potential institutional biases.

Demographic Dividend and Ageing Concerns

India currently benefits from a demographic dividend:

• 68% of the population is in the working-age group (15–64 years).

However, with life expectancy increasing to:

• 71 years for men

• 74 years for women

…the elderly population (now 7%) is projected to grow significantly. This will create added pressure on:

• Healthcare systems

• Social security

• Pension and elderly care infrastructure

Reframing the Population Debate: From Numbers to Rights

The UNFPA report emphasizes that the real issue is not population size, but the inability of individuals to fulfil their reproductive goals.

Key shifts proposed:

• Move from population control to reproductive rights.

• Promote informed decision-making on contraception, sex, and family planning.

• Focus on choice, access, and empowerment, not demographic targets alone.

Policy Imperatives for India

To adapt to this new demographic reality, India must:

• Enhance women’s workforce participation through flexible work policies and equal pay.

• Expand support for childcare and elderly care, particularly in urban areas.

• Reform workplace structures to reduce the economic cost of parenting.

• Invest in universal access to contraception, fertility counselling, and reproductive education.

• Strengthen state-level programmes in high-fertility regions.

The upcoming 2027 Census, delayed since 2021, will be crucial for policy calibration.

Conclusion: 

India stands at a critical demographic juncture. The challenge is not merely about managing numbers, but ensuring that every individual has the freedom, support, and resources to make informed reproductive choices.

Future population strategies must prioritise:

• Rights-based approaches over control mechanisms.

• Social investments over short-term targets.

• Inclusive governance over demographic panic.

This transition, if managed wisely, can position India for sustainable development and social equity in the decades to come.