Migration Trends in India: Post-Pandemic Shifts and Emerging Challenges

Context

Migration is a key aspect of India’s socio-economic fabric, driven by factors like employment, education, and climate change. The Covid-19 pandemic severely disrupted migration patterns, leading to a large-scale reverse migration from urban to rural areas. Five years later, migration trends have largely returned to pre-pandemic levels, but new challenges such as climate change, economic transformations, and policy gaps continue to shape migration in India.

Reverse Migration During Covid-19

• The pandemic triggered an unprecedented urban-to-rural reverse migration.

• Government estimates indicate:

  • 44.13 million people migrated back to rural areas during the first lockdown.

  • 26.3 million people returned during the second lockdown.

• Migrants faced severe hardships, including:

  • Wage theft, food insecurity, and lack of healthcare and education.

  • Discrimination, police brutality, and loss of employment.

  • Severe economic strain for families dependent on remittances.

Return to Urban Migration and Rural Economic Challenges

• The rural economy struggled to absorb the returning workforce.

• MGNREGA provided temporary relief but failed to sustain long-term employment.

• Key drivers of return migration to urban areas:

  • Rural distress and low wages.

  • Better economic opportunities and urban aspirations.

  • Climate change’s impact on agriculture and allied sectors, leading to distress-driven migration (as observed in Odisha by FAO and IOM studies).

Urban Migration Trends and Government Initiatives

• Urbanization in India is projected to rise, with 40% of the population expected to live in cities by 2026.

• Government initiatives encouraging migration for economic growth:

  • Smart Cities Mission – Aims to develop 100 cities into modern urban hubs.

  • PM Awas Yojana (Urban) – Provides affordable housing for urban poor, influencing migration patterns.

  • National Urban Transport Policy – Improves mobility infrastructure, facilitating economic migration.

Impact on International Migration

• Challenges faced by Indian emigrants during the pandemic:

  • Job losses, wage cuts, and poor living conditions.

  • Increased health risks and travel restrictions.

  • Despite hardships, remittances remained resilient, sustaining many Indian households.

Post-Pandemic Migration Trends:

• GCC countries remain the primary destination for Indian migrants.

• Europe is attracting more skilled professionals, with Indians being the largest recipients of the EU Blue Card in 2023.

• African nations are emerging as employment hubs in IT, manufacturing, and healthcare, though challenges persist (e.g., 47 Jharkhand workers stranded in Cameroon).

• Healthcare workers from India remain in high demand globally.

Surge in Student Migration:

• Kerala Migration Survey 2023:

  • Student emigrants from Kerala nearly doubled, from 1.29 lakh (2018) to 2.5 lakh (2023).

• RBI data:

  • Outward remittances for studies abroad peaked at $3,171 million in 2021.

• Geopolitical impact:

  • The Russia-Ukraine war led to a major student crisis.

Challenges in Migration Governance and Policy Interventions

Data Gaps in Migration Governance:

• 2021 Census delay has hindered accurate assessment of post-pandemic migration trends.

• Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) 2020-21 recorded a 28.9% migration rate (a marginal increase from 28.5% in NSS 64th Round, 2007-08), but does not reflect long-term trends.

• Lack of a comprehensive Indian emigrant database limits policy effectiveness.

Social Security and Welfare Measures:

• e-Shram Portal (2021):

  • Aims to create a National Database of Unorganised Workers (NDUW) and provide social security benefits.

  • However, lack of awareness and digital access hinder its success.

• One Nation One Ration Card (ONORC) scheme (2018):

  • Helps migrants access subsidized food grains across states.

  • Many still remain excluded due to documentation and implementation gaps.

The Kerala Model and Future Policy Directions

• Kerala Migration Surveys (conducted every five years since 1998) have significantly improved migration policies.

• Several states, including Odisha, Goa, Punjab, Gujarat, Jharkhand, and Tamil Nadu, have replicated this model.

• Expanding this approach nationwide would enhance migration governance and improve policy responses.

Conclusion

• Five years after the Covid-19 crisis, India’s migration landscape is evolving.

• While urban migration is resuming and international migration patterns are diversifying, new factors such as climate change, global economic shifts, and policy interventions continue to influence movement trends.

• Strengthening migration governance through data-driven policies and improved social security mechanisms is essential for ensuring migrant welfare and economic stability.